Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias -- by Isaiah Andrews,...
Some empirical results are more likely to be published than others. Such selective publication leads to biased estimators and distorted inference. This paper proposes two approaches for identifying the...
View ArticleSeeing and Hearing: The Impacts of New York City's Universal Prekindergarten...
Prior research suggests that high quality universal pre-kindergarten (UPK) programs can generate lifetime benefits, but the mechanisms generating these effects are not well-understood. In 2014, New...
View ArticleThe Value of Flexible Work: Evidence from Uber Drivers -- by M. Keith Chen,...
Participation in flexible contract work has increased dramatically over the last decade, often in settings where new technologies lower the transaction costs of providing labor flexibly. One prominent...
View ArticleCitywide Effects of High-Occupancy Vehicle Restrictions: Evidence from the...
In cities worldwide, the widespread use of single occupancy cars often leads to traffic congestion and its associated ill effects. Using high frequency data from Google Maps, we test whether...
View ArticleRisk Aversion as a Perceptual Bias -- by Mel Win Khaw, Ziang Li, Michael...
The theory of expected utility maximization (EUM) explains risk aversion as due to diminishing marginal utility of wealth. However, observed choices between risky lotteries are difficult to reconcile...
View ArticleFinance and Growth: Household Savings, Public Investment, and Public Health...
Saving is essential to the health of economies because it provides the wherewithal for investment. In the late nineteenth century, saving was also essential to the health of urban working-class...
View ArticleWhy You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter -- by James D. Hamilton
Here's why. (1) The HP filter produces series with spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (2) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very...
View ArticleFinancial Intermediation in Private Equity: How Well Do Funds of Funds...
This paper focuses on funds of funds (FOFs) as a form of financial intermediation in private equity (both buyout and venture capital). After accounting for fees, FOFs provide returns equal to or above...
View ArticleThe Lerner Symmetry Theorem: Generalizations and Qualifications -- by Arnaud...
The Lerner Symmetry Theorem (Lerner, 1936) establishes the equivalence between import tariffs and export taxes in a simple neoclassical economy with two countries, two final goods, and no trade costs....
View ArticleThe Cross-Border Spillover Effects of Recreational Marijuana Legalization --...
We examine the spillover effects of recreational marijuana legalization (RML) in Colorado and Washington on neighboring states. We find that RML causes a sharp increase in marijuana possession arrests...
View ArticleStraight Talkers and Vague Talkers: The Effects of Managerial Style in...
Managers conducting earnings conference calls display distinctive styles in their word choice. Some CEOs and CFOs are straight talkers. Others, by contrast, are vague talkers. Vague talkers routinely...
View ArticleMonetary Policy through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market...
Monetary policy shocks have a large impact on stock returns in narrow windows around press releases by the Federal Reserve. We use spatial autoregressions to decompose the overall effect of monetary...
View ArticleLags, Costs, and Shocks: An Equilibrium Model of the Oil Industry -- by...
We use a new micro data set to compile some key facts about the oil market and estimate a structural industry equilibrium model that is consistent with these facts. We find that demand and supply...
View ArticleThe Causes and Costs of Misallocation -- by Diego Restuccia, Richard Rogerson
Why do living standards differ so much across countries? A consensus in the development literature is that differences in productivity are a dominant source of these differences. But what accounts for...
View ArticleRacial Bias in Bail Decisions -- by David Arnold, Will Dobbie, Crystal S. Yang
This paper develops a new test for identifying racial bias in the context of bail decisions - a high-stakes setting with large disparities between white and black defendants. We motivate our analysis...
View ArticleInnovation-Led Transitions in Energy Supply -- by Derek Lemoine
I reconcile a benchmark model of directed technical change with the historical experience of energy transitions by allowing for a non-unitary elasticity of substitution between machines and the other...
View ArticleImperfect Financial Markets and Shareholder Incentives in Partial and General...
We analyze the firm-level and aggregate consequences of equity market imperfections in the form of noisy information aggregation for corporate risk-taking and investment. Market imperfections cause...
View ArticleSurvey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and...
Economists commonly suppose that persons have probabilistic expectations for uncertain events, yet empirical research measuring expectations was long rare. The inhibition against collection of...
View ArticleHandle with Care: The Local Air Pollution Costs of Coal Storage. -- by...
Burning coal is known to have environmental costs; this paper quantities the local environmental costs of transporting and storing coal at U.S. power plants for the sample period 2002-2012. We first...
View ArticleAustralian Squatters, Convicts, and Capitalists: Dividing Up a Fast-Growing...
Compared with its nineteenth century competitors, Australian GDP per worker grew exceptionally fast, about twice that of the US and three times that of Britain. This paper asks whether the fast growth...
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